The global commodities landscape is currently undergoing a massive structural shift, driven by a mix of geopolitical maneuvering, corporate consolidation, and a long-awaited surge in energy supply. As of January 21, 2026, several key developments are reshaping market expectations for the year ahead.
Metals: The Race for Scale and Security
The mining sector is buzzing with the potential merger between Rio Tinto and Glencore. Rio Tinto recently reported a strong Q4, with iron ore shipments from its Pilbara operations reaching 91.3 million tons, exceeding consensus estimates. Meanwhile, annual copper production grew by 11% to 883,000 tons. This operational strength comes at a critical time as the company evaluates a formal offer for Glencore.
On the geopolitical front, the Democratic Republic of Congo is making a direct play for U.S. investment. By offering a shortlist of assets—including the Mutoshi copper-cobalt project and various lithium and manganese licenses—Kinshasa is positioning itself as a vital partner in the U.S. effort to diversify supply chains away from Chinese dominance. With China currently processing between 47% and 87% of strategic minerals, this partnership could be a turning point for Western energy transition goals.
Energy: LNG Surplus and Japan’s Nuclear Milestone
For the first time since the 2022 energy crisis, the LNG market is moving toward a state of “ample availability.” Analysts from S&P Global and Rystad Energy predict 35 million metric tons of new capacity this year, largely from the U.S. and Qatar. This influx is expected to drive Asian spot prices down to an average of $9.50–$9.90 per mmBtu, a sharp drop from the $12.45 average seen in 2025.
Parallel to the gas surplus is Japan’s re-embrace of nuclear power. TEPCO’s restart of the 1.36 GW Reactor No. 6 at Kashiwazaki-Kariwa marks the utility’s first nuclear activity since 2011. This move is expected to cut Japan’s LNG imports by roughly 4 million metric tons in 2026, as the country prioritizes energy security and lower-carbon baseload power.
Agriculture and Oil: Supply Disruptions and Financial Strain
While the energy and metals sectors look toward growth, the agriculture and oil sectors are facing immediate hurdles:
- Ghana’s Cocoa Crisis: A breakdown in the new “trader-financed” model has left farmers unpaid since November. With international prices falling 20% this year, traders are unwilling to provide the 60% upfront payments required, threatening the stability of the world’s second-largest producer.
- Kazakhstan Outage: A fire at the Tengiz oilfield has halted production, removing approximately 600,000 to 700,000 tons of scheduled exports for January and February. While fields like Kashagan have increased output by 28% to compensate, the outage highlights the vulnerability of aging infrastructure in major production hubs.