Russia is intensifying discussions with China to expand oil exports, reinforcing the economic alignment between the two nations. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak confirmed that Moscow is exploring avenues to increase flows, including the option of extending pipeline supply agreements through Kazakhstan until 2033. China already imports roughly 1.4 million barrels per day of Russian crude by sea and another 900,000 barrels per day by pipeline, making it one of Russia’s most critical economic partners.
The renewed push comes just weeks after the United States imposed sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil. Despite the pressure, Russian crude exports have remained stable, supported by consistent buying from China and India. Yet Washington is expanding its scrutiny to Russian LNG after lawmakers accused the U.S. administration of failing to enforce sanctions on the Arctic LNG 2 project, which has sold discounted cargoes to China.
In West Africa, a significant breakthrough emerged as Barrick Mining and Mali resolved a long-running dispute over the Loulo-Gounkoto gold complex. The agreement drops all charges against Barrick, releases detained employees, and restores operational control to the company. Barrick will withdraw its arbitration case and accept the country’s 2023 mining code, while Mali will extend its mining permit by ten years. The development sent Barrick shares to a record high, though questions remain over the company’s long-term presence in the country.
In Nigeria, the Dangote refinery—Africa’s largest—continues to reshape the regional energy landscape. Dangote has selected Honeywell to support its plan to double capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day by 2028. The partnership will also enable polyproplyene production of 2.4 million tons annually. The $20 billion refinery aims to end Nigeria’s reliance on fuel imports and transform the nation into a refined-product exporter.
Agriculture markets also stirred as China returned to the U.S. soybean market in force. Recent purchases exceeded 1.6 million metric tons in just three days, and vessels are now arriving to load the first China-bound U.S. soybeans since May. Sorghum shipments are also resuming for the first time since March. These moves follow a meeting between U.S. and Chinese leaders, where Washington claims Beijing agreed to purchase 12 million tons of soybeans by year-end.
Meanwhile, Lynas Rare Earths warned that multiple power disruptions at its Kalgoorlie facility will create a one-month production shortfall. The disruptions will impact supplies of mixed rare earth carbonate and downstream finished goods in Malaysia. Analysts have already reduced production expectations for the quarter.
And finally, Saudi Arabia purchased 300,000 tons of wheat for February–April 2026 delivery, with traders expecting much of it to be sourced from the Black Sea region.
The interplay of geopolitical alliances, supply disruptions, and shifting trade flows continues to define global commodities—and the months ahead promise even more volatility and opportunity.