The commodities markets in early 2026 are defined by a fascinating paradox: record-breaking milestones in the green energy transition are occurring simultaneously with a massive resurgence in traditional mining and heavy crude oil trade. As we analyze the latest data, several key themes emerge that will likely dictate market sentiment for the remainder of the year.
Gold’s Path to $5,400
Gold continues to defy gravity. Goldman Sachs recently updated its end-2026 forecast to $5,400 per ounce, up from $4,900. This 11% year-to-date gain is fueled by a structural shift in how central banks and private investors view the metal. Rather than just a temporary safe haven, gold is being used as a permanent hedge against global policy instability. With the U.S. Federal Reserve expected to cut rates by 50 basis points this year, the “opportunity cost” of holding gold is falling, inviting Western ETF investors back into the fold.
The European Energy Milestone
For the first time in history, the European Union has proven that a renewable-heavy grid is no longer a distant dream but a current reality. In 2025, wind and solar combined to provide 30% of the bloc’s power, officially overtaking fossil fuels (29%).
- Solar Surge: Solar output expanded by 20% for the fourth year in a row.
- Coal’s Decline: The fossil fuel’s share hit a record low of 9.2%.
- The Bureaucracy Barrier: Despite these wins, EDP CEO Miguel Stilwell d’Andrade warns that the “sense of urgency” has been lost. Permitting remains a multi-year hurdle that threatens to stall progress just as the technology becomes most viable.
Oil: Venezuelan Return and Kazakh Setbacks
The geopolitical map of oil is being redrawn. Following the ouster of Nicolas Maduro, U.S. refiners Valero and Phillips 66 have returned to the Venezuelan market, purchasing cargoes through trading houses like Vitol. These deals, traded at discounts of $8.50 to $9.50 below Brent, mark a new chapter for U.S. Gulf Coast refineries that have long missed the heavy Merey grade.
In contrast, Kazakhstan’s supply chain is in crisis. A fire at the massive Tengiz field has triggered a force majeure, combined with ongoing damage to Black Sea export buoys from drone attacks. With Kazakhstan’s production falling by 35% in early January, the CPC pipeline—which handles 1.5% of global supply—is under immense pressure.
Agriculture’s New Strategy
Russia is moving away from being a “raw material only” exporter. By encouraging companies to build processing plants like flour mills in foreign markets, Russia aims to secure long-term partnerships and bypass the low margins of raw grain sales. Meanwhile, Ukraine continues to show resilience in corn exports despite ongoing port attacks, though its wheat shipments have been halved compared to late 2025 due to intense Russian competition.
As these stories develop, the common thread is a world trying to balance the immediate need for traditional resources with the long-term mandate of the energy transition.