Commodity markets are entering a fresh era where political decisions matter as much as supply, demand, and pricing fundamentals. The latest developments across energy, metals, and agriculture reveal how governments, regulators, and corporate strategies are reshaping trade flows in ways that will echo well into 2026.
One of the sharpest disruptions has emerged in cobalt. The Democratic Republic of Congo’s new quota system has finally permitted Glencore to export an initial shipment after months of uncertainty. The country allocated just 18,125 tons for the final quarter of 2025 and plans to cap annual shipments at 96,600 tons starting in 2026. This follows an export freeze that had sent cobalt prices to more than $24 per pound, more than double their February lows. Exporters face new requirements including prepayment of a 10% royalty and mandatory compliance certificates, slowing the process and raising questions about the stability of global battery supply chains.
While metals grapple with regulatory bottlenecks, agriculture markets are being reshaped by a different type of intervention: tax policy. Argentina’s government reduced export levies on soybeans, corn, wheat, barley, and sorghum, a major win for the country’s influential farm sector. Soybean export taxes dropped from 26% to 24%, while corn and sorghum fell from 9.5% to 8.5%. Analysts expect limited near-term impact on trade flows but say the changes may influence planting decisions for the 2025/26 crop.
In the United States, soybean exports remain subdued despite the resumption of Chinese buying. Total sales are down nearly 40% from last year, prompting the USDA to hold its forecast unchanged. Corn exports, by contrast, are booming, with the agency projecting a record 3.2 billion bushels of exports for the 2025/26 season.
Brazil’s coffee exports tumbled 27.1% year-on-year in November after the U.S. implemented steep tariffs earlier in 2025. With most of the tariffs now lifted, exporters expect volumes to rebound starting in December, though instant coffee remains subject to the full 50% tariff, leaving a portion of the trade still restrained.
Energy markets are experiencing their own complex transitions. Exxon Mobil lifted its earnings-growth target to $25 billion between 2024 and 2030 while maintaining capital-spending discipline. The company is leveraging artificial intelligence in the Permian Basin, reducing its cost of supply to $30 per barrel. It also plans to boost production to 5.5 million barrels of oil equivalent per day by 2030 while expanding its LNG footprint.
In LNG, Venture Global and Shell are locked in a contentious legal battle involving allegations of misleading statements, confidentiality breaches, and inconsistent arbitration outcomes. These disputes could influence the future of long-term LNG contracting as buyers push for more transparency and reliability in delivery commitments.
Meanwhile, U.S. natural gas production and demand are both expected to hit record highs in 2025, according to the Energy Information Administration. LNG exports are projected to rise to 14.9 billion cubic feet per day next year and 16.3 bcfd in 2026, cementing the U.S. as a global supply leader.
Finally, geopolitical maneuvering is taking center stage as the clock winds down on the sale of Lukoil’s roughly $22 billion in overseas assets. A proposed plan from Xtellus Partners seeks to compensate U.S. investors by swapping frozen Lukoil shares for those assets, circumventing sanctions that prohibit cash payments to the Russian company.
In an era defined by tariffs, royalties, arbitration, and sanctions, commodities markets are evolving rapidly. For participants across the value chain, adaptation is no longer optional — it is the cornerstone of future resilience.