The Mining Revolution in Ghana
Ghana, the top gold producer in Africa and the 6th largest globally, has officially moved to end the era of “stability agreements.” For years, these pacts protected international miners from tax and royalty hikes for up to 15 years. However, the government’s new draft bill proposes doubling royalties—increasing the range from the current 3-5% to a potential 9-12% if gold prices remain near their current $4,590/oz levels. This move reflects a broader trend: as bullion prices soar, host nations are no longer willing to settle for fixed-rate contracts established during lower-price environments.
The Agrarian Squeeze
In contrast to the booming metals sector, the American farm belt is facing a localized depression. The economic data is stark:
- Corn: Current price is $4.10/bushel; break-even is $5.03/bushel.
- Soybeans: Current price is $10.20/bushel; break-even is $12.80/bushel.
- Bankruptcies: Chapter 12 filings rose nearly 36% in the first nine months of 2025.
While U.S. farmers struggle with high input costs and record inventories, Brazil is projecting a record soybean harvest of 176.12 million metric tons. This global glut, combined with trade wars that have diverted Chinese buying toward South America, has created a “perfect storm” of unprofitability for U.S. row-crop producers.
Energy and Geopolitics
The energy sector is seeing a massive regulatory tug-of-war. In the U.S., judicial rulings are beginning to chip away at the administration’s pause on offshore wind, with Equinor’s 60%-complete Empire Wind project being cleared to resume construction. Simultaneously, the White House is pivoting to address electricity affordability, proposing price caps for the PJM grid to mitigate the strain caused by the AI-driven data center boom.
On the international front, the “thaw” in Venezuela is accelerating. With a $100 billion reconstruction plan on the table, major European firms like Repsol and ENI are seeking licenses to resume exports. This shift coincides with a decline in Russian oil flows to India, which dropped 22% in December as U.S. tariffs and sanctions push Indian refiners back toward OPEC suppliers.
These developments suggest that the “old” rules of global trade—dominated by long-term stability and predictable supply lines—are being replaced by a more volatile, state-driven model of commodity management.